Tag: politics

Some happy politics news: same-sex marriage and election integrity

There’s some surprisingly good news after the objectively-not-great-but-subjectively-much-better-than-expected midterm elections!

  1. The Respect for Marriage Act passed, meaning that the federal government and states have to recognize same-sex marriages, although it doesn’t mean that states have to allow same-sex marriages to happen in their state. This issue picked up steam after Roe v Wade was overturned and Clarence Thomas suggested the Supreme Court may want to “reconsider” Obergefell v Hodges. That such a bill passed with some Republican votes (although far fewer than Democrat votes!) is another indication of how far we’ve come.
  2. In the omnibus spending bill that will be signed by Biden momentarily, there are a bunch of provisions to reform the Electoral Count Act of 1887. Basically every provision is to address how Trump was trying to steal the election in 2020 – clarifying that the Vice President’s role is merely ceremonial, raising the threshold to nullify electors, and some state-level stuff too. This really gives me hope for the fairness of future elections!

This whole Alabama hurricane map thing, sigh

In case you missed it, here’s an NPR article: Trump Displays Altered Map Of Hurricane Dorian’s Path To Include Alabama.

This whole thing is kinda similar to the inauguration crowd size thing from 2017 (which feels like a lifetime ago!), in that the original issue is utterly insignificant. Trump accidentally included Alabama in the list of 7ish states that would be affected by Dorian, but by that time it had already started to turn north so forecasters weren’t saying that anymore. Who cares?

But the total inability for Trump to ever admit he was wrong about anything, no matter how trivial, is such a terrible character trait, especially in a President. It’s not clear whether Trump drew the line on the map himself, or whether he told someone to, or (less likely?) some aide took it upon himself/herself to draw it to make Trump happy. None of these are good options!

The world is a complicated place, and everyone is wrong sometimes. Refusing to admit that just makes yourself look more foolish than the original error.

There is no perfect Presidential candidate (but who I’m leaning towards)

It’s very early in the presidential primary cycle but I’ve started taking a look at the many, many candidates for president.

Since there are so many candidates this time around, it’s easy to get in a mode where you look at a candidate, see one bad thing about her, and get disillusioned and move on. It’s important to realize that no one (especially politicians!) are perfect, and looking for the one “true” candidate is going to lead to disappointment, especially because with this many candidates even if you choose the frontrunner you’re at least 70% likely he won’t win.

Also worth remembering is that basically all of the candidates are better than the current president 🙂

Anyway, having said that I thought I’d list my current thoughts on the candidates. One thing worth mentioning is the “14-Year Rule” – no one who has been in major public office (governor or US senator or something) for more than 14 years has won the presidency. Obviously it’s not hard and fast, but I think there is something to the fact that the longer you’ve been in the public eye the more likely you’ve done things that will make some people unhappy. Is it fair? Probably not, but no one deserves to be a presidential nominee, and I’m much more concerned with the Democrat winning than getting the candidate that aligns most closely with my values.

Top tier:

  • Senator Kamala Harris – I generally like her positions, she seems fairly charismatic. There’s been some negative buzz among progressives about her positions when she was a prosecutor, but I haven’t heard about anything I’d consider major given the office she held. Need to learn more about her.
  • Mayor Pete Buttigieg – Not a ton of experience, but I like his positions and he’s smart and is having a bit of a media moment right now. (although it’s so early, it’s entirely possible his campaign will flame out) And yeah, he’s gay and that’s neat to see. Since he hasn’t run a major campaign before, he probably hasn’t been well-vetted, which is a little scary. Need to learn more about him.

Second tier:

  • Beto O’Rourke – Obviously he’s kind of a celebrity right now, and it’s a good sign if the media likes him. A little light on policy but not as light as everyone seems to think.

Third tier:

  • Senator Cory Booker – Young, charismatic. Has some ties to the pharmaceutical and financial industry, which is somewhat to be expected since he’s a senator from New Jersey but may be a problem. Barely passes the “14-year rule” (he was mayor of Newark starting in 2006)
  • Senator Amy Klobuchar – From the midwest (a good thing given how close Wisconsin and Michigan were in 2016), and has done better than you’d expect in Minnesota so she’s probably “electable”. The stories about her abusing staffers are not great, though. Barely passes the “14-year rule” (became a Senator in 2006)
  • Andrew Yang – He has some momentum and a truly impressive list of policies, and his signature issue is Universal Basic Income which I’ve long had a fascination with. Never run a major campaign before, though, and I’m skeptical the Democrats will want to nominate a businessman with no electoral experience given the current president.

Meh:

  • Senator Bernie Sanders – I kinda like his policies but I don’t like that they seem more aspirational than things that can actually get done. Also, he’s quite old and fails the “14-year rule”. I fear that he is too liberal to get elected.
  • Joe Biden – He’s the living embodiment of why the “14-year rule” is a thing – he’s been around for long enough that he’s done some unpopular things. (the Clinton-era crime bill, handling of Anita Hill at Clarence Thomas’s confirmation hearing) Also very old and apparently has some #MeToo problems. Yes, he’s doing well in the polls now, but it’s easy to do well in the polls when you’re not running yet!
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren – This saddens me, because I think I like her policies the best of everyone. (“capitalism, but fixed” is a good summary) But I think she’s too old.

(I don’t really have an opinion on the rest of the candidates)

How to feel about the midterm results: pretty good!

So the results from last night were a little confusing – it’s hard when there are sooo many races to make sense of it all. Here’s why I’m relatively happy this morning after sleeping on it:

– The biggest thing is that Democrats took the House by a pretty healthy margin. There are still a number of races that need to be counted (grrr California) or recounted, but it’ll be something like D 230-R 205. This means the Democrats can stop any funny business with the Census or repealing Obamacare, and will also have oversight power over the Executive branch (hopefully they won’t overplay their hand; very curious to see how this plays out)

– Beto lost, but only by 3 points in Texas which is very good. The fact that he turned so many people out to the polls almost certainly helped Democrats flip two House districts (including the one where I grew up!), two state Senate seats, and at least 11 state House seats!

– The Democrats didn’t do quite as well at governors races as we had hoped, but we did flip seven states. (including beating Kris Kobach in Kansas(!) and Scott Walker in Wisconsin) I will say that losing in Florida and Ohio is not a great thing if you’re looking for omens in 2020…

– The Senate was, obviously, not great. If you look at the predictions for the outstanding ballots it looks like it will be R 54-D 46. But it was an incredibly tough map for Democrats. And it is encouraging that we easily won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (thinking about 2020 again!)

– Apparently:

which is very good news when it comes to redistricting in 2020 and whatnot.

– Ballot measures were really positive. Idaho, Utah, and Nebraska all expanded Medicaid coverage (although Montana did not) A whole bunch of anti-corruption measures passed, including redistricting reforms in Michigan and Colorado. Florida will no longer disenfranchise convicted felons that have served their time.

I am disappointed that it wasn’t more of a direct rebuke to Trump, as candidates Trumpiness didn’t seem to affect the results very much. See:

But in general it was a pretty good night. Remember: Democrats won the national popular vote for the House by around 7 points, which is a big accomplishment!