So the results from last night were a little confusing – it’s hard when there are sooo many races to make sense of it all. Here’s why I’m relatively happy this morning after sleeping on it:
– The biggest thing is that Democrats took the House by a pretty healthy margin. There are still a number of races that need to be counted (grrr California) or recounted, but it’ll be something like D 230-R 205. This means the Democrats can stop any funny business with the Census or repealing Obamacare, and will also have oversight power over the Executive branch (hopefully they won’t overplay their hand; very curious to see how this plays out)
– Beto lost, but only by 3 points in Texas which is very good. The fact that he turned so many people out to the polls almost certainly helped Democrats flip two House districts (including the one where I grew up!), two state Senate seats, and at least 11 state House seats!
– The Democrats didn’t do quite as well at governors races as we had hoped, but we did flip seven states. (including beating Kris Kobach in Kansas(!) and Scott Walker in Wisconsin) I will say that losing in Florida and Ohio is not a great thing if you’re looking for omens in 2020…
– The Senate was, obviously, not great. If you look at the predictions for the outstanding ballots it looks like it will be R 54-D 46. But it was an incredibly tough map for Democrats. And it is encouraging that we easily won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (thinking about 2020 again!)
Democrats lost around a net 900 seats in state legislatures over the Obama presidency. With special elections and last night, they won 333 back this cycle.
— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) November 7, 2018
which is very good news when it comes to redistricting in 2020 and whatnot.
– Ballot measures were really positive. Idaho, Utah, and Nebraska all expanded Medicaid coverage (although Montana did not) A whole bunch of anti-corruption measures passed, including redistricting reforms in Michigan and Colorado. Florida will no longer disenfranchise convicted felons that have served their time.
I am disappointed that it wasn’t more of a direct rebuke to Trump, as candidates Trumpiness didn’t seem to affect the results very much. See:
Yes, a lot of moderate GOPers lost tonight, making the caucus more Trumpy.
But some of his top allies lost as well: Brat, Tenney, Donovan, and now probably even Rohrabacher. https://t.co/upOEEi8cCJ
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) November 7, 2018
But in general it was a pretty good night. Remember: Democrats won the national popular vote for the House by around 7 points, which is a big accomplishment!