still happy about Iowa

Yep, I’m still happy about Iowa! Supreme courts in Maryland, New York, and Washington have all ruled against gay marriage in the past 3 years[1] And it provides a beautiful spot of green on an otherwise somewhat dreary map.

Nate Silver does a regression on states voting on gay marriage and concludes that, if a gay marriage ban in Iowa makes it to the ballot in 2012, the vote will probably be extremely close. I’m not sure if having same-sex marriage performed in the state for 3 years will help or hurt the cause. (it seems to have helped in Massachusetts?) Using the same model, he predicts Texas would vote down a ban on gay marriage in 2018, which is sooner than I would have thought.

Also up this week – the governor of Vermont is expected to veto the same-sex marriage bill today (after the Senate approves the House version), then override votes should be tomorrow.

[1] – See this article for a broader picture. (return)

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